King of the Realm, our esteemed Lord, Novak Djokovic, who shredded David Ferrer the other night in his QF match, will play his 3rd consecutive night match this morning on Rod Laver, when he takes on Andy Murray in the 2nd Men’s Semi-final.  Should Djokovic win, which he should, he would be in his third Australian Open final, where he is already 2-0.  It would also give The Djoker the chance to successfully defend his 2011 crown.  Should Murray win, which he shouldn’t, he would be in his third consecutive Australian Final, where he is yet to win a set.  Here are the match odds:

Djokovic:  – 300

Murray:  + 240

…….

Many feel this is a good matchup for Murray, and we know why, but we don’t see it.  Murray did not lose to Djokovic between August 2008 and January 2011, as for about a two year period during which Murray over took Djokovic in the rankings, Murray was the mentally tougher and more expertly conditioned player.  That is over now.  A lot has been made of Ivan Lendl’s association with Andy Murray, who has taken over the helm, and we do think it will have a positive effect on Murray in time.  We doubt that time is tonight.  Frankly, we still see Murray receding a bit.  He has had a very hard time with the big 3 at the majors over the last 2 years, and Djokovic seems stronger than ever.

While we hate negative money lines, we kinda feel like betting Djokovic is like putting money in the bank.  In our estimation, this line pays little heed to Djokovic.  During the height of Federer’s dominance, he was usually about a minus 550 at the very lowest.  In those terms, The Djoker is a bargain here.  By our count, Djokovic hasn’t lost on Plexicushion since Indian Wells in 2010, versus Ivan Ljubicic.  By our count, that’s 18 straight.

Guess what?  Djokovic, though it’s only been 5 matches, is also undefeated this year.  Again.  But in fairness, so is Murray, now 10-0 on the year, taking the title in Brisbane a few weeks back.

We also expect a quick match.  How exactly does Andy Murray win points in a match like this?  Djokovic seems impenetrable on both wings and impossible to not get passed by at the net.  Also, not too many aces are struck against him nowadays either.  Murray has to hope for errors, which is his usual strategy, and is precisely why he can’t really beat the top 3.  Djokovic has lost one set so far this fortnight, and is back to baking, having passed out 3 bagels thus far, after doling out something like 15 last year.  Or close to it.  Don’t exactly quote us.  Set props below:

Djokovic wins 3 sets to zero

+ 180

Murray wins 3 sets to zero

+ 700

Djokovic wins 3 sets to 1

+ 250

Murray wins 3 sets to 1

+ 600

Djokovic wins 3 sets to 2

+ 450

Murray wins 3 sets to 2

+ 700

……

Personally, you might catch us betting on Djokovic in 3 and in 4.  We also like Djokovic to win the 1st set (-200).  He has not lost the 1st set in a major since the Semis at RG (7-6 Federer).  That is a 19 match streak.  These two have played just the once in a major, which was last year’s final.  They’ve met in 3 previous semi-finals, all won by Djokovic.  Djokovic is competing in his 7th consecutive major semi-final, and if he wins, he will advance to his seventh career major final (4-2).

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We are sensing a theme to the Vegas lines on all of the semi-finals action tonight, which includes both women’s matches and the Federer-Nadal match.  It seems like Vegas is paying a great, great deal of respect to the bigger name, in each matchup.  Essentially, the player with more major victories is weighted a lot more heavily in each matchup.  Starting with the under card, which could be a headliner on it’s own.  Odds below:

2012 Australian Open Ladies 1st Semi-final — 9:30 PM EST

Clijsters:  – 110

Azarenka:  – 110

………

We like Azarenka.  A lot.  Sure we have been watching Clijsters matches and we could not be more impressed with how she strapped it up after rolling her ankle against Na Li, and then, how she clobbered Wozniacki.  We aren’t surprised.  But Azarenka is the best player that Clijsters has played in a long time, and she is playing the best tennis of anyone that Clijsters has played in a long time.  While Clijsters has a 4-2 lead in the h2h, Azarenka has played Clijsters very tough, even before she was the player she now is.  Azarenka won their last matchup, on a soft, slow hardcourt in Miami, very similar conditions.  And Azarenka, dating back to the fall has not lost to anyone except Kvitova, twice, and those matches were very close, coming down to a few points here or there.  Vegas likes what is tried and true.  Azarenka, wethinks, is not totally on the radar.  And obviously Clijsters has a very good chance to win.  But we feel the guard is changing, and that Azarenka is a new it player, soon to get her due.  Like tonight, and then on to her 1st major final on Saturday.

Australian Open Ladies 2nd Semi-final — 11:30 PM EST

Kvitova:  – 135

Sharapova:  – 105

……

So first off, we don’t get how Sharapova has a negative money line here.  She is the worse player, no doubt about it.  None.  Kvitova has been unbeatable, and has played very clutch, very smart, and very efficient tennis, in winning the YEC, the Fed Cup, and in beating Sharapova easily at Wimbledon.  You know, we are kind of tired of hearing about Sharapova and extremely tired of hearing Chris Evert blather on about her, about all of them, about everything.  We liked it much better before ESPN broke her out of the moth balls.  Evert is in love with Sharapova, predicting her for majors this year and whatnot…we don’t see it.  Serena aside, this is a young women’s game.  Younger women’s game.  And Sharapova looks older in this matchup.  This is not another Makarova matchup.  Kvitova will take Sharapova’s time away and that will be that.  In fact, we like her very much in specific, to win in two sets. There is nothing that Sharapova does that Kvitova can’t do much better, and some things Kvitova does, Sharapova doesn’t do at all.  Like volley.

And so in our minds, the rightful final will be a rematch of the YEC final, where Kvitova takes the hardware.  But first, they need to take care of business tonight.  We’re betting they will.

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Martina Navratilova, who knows a thing or two about fast courts, having only won 9 singles titles back when the Wimbledon grass was fast, and 4 US Opens, back when it was super fast, and a combined 16 doubles titles combined at the two, was asked earlier in the week if these courts in Melbourne were playing slowly.

“Super slow.” she said.  “Very very slow.”

Asked how she knew, she said that she could tell from watching up close, but that also, she had just played in Melbourne Park a day or two before.  She said the courts were nothing like the US Open, which were also slower than normal this year, that the balls they are using seem if not bigger then more inflated, more airy, and that only the very biggest of hitters will be able to get the ball through the court.

“I played on red clay last week” said Martina.  “And it was faster.”

Australia.  The slowest major?  We’ve thought so since Tennis Australia sold out to Plexicushion 4 years ago, noticing a real uptick in speed at Roland Garros, shorter points there, bigger serves and more aces, whereas Melbourne Park has been widely criticized for misrepresenting their speed of court since going with the tacky blue foam.  What a splendid ad campaign they had.  The height of disinformation really.  Trotting out old pros like Don Newcombe and Rod Laver  who they gave free courts to, to endorse Plexicushion for reasons such as the rubber, spongy surface was easy on the knees.  Sure.  But they are senior citizens, not current players on the tour.

You heard much different talk from Lleyton Hewitt, who always has a current AO court zapped in at his home in Australia so that he may practice on the actual surface.  Hewitt reached a final and four SFs on the former Rebound Ace surface.  Not a huge guy, Hewitt likes the faster courts on which his balls move better through the court. He also likes a target, but since so many players feel like they are giving the opponent too much time on the pass on the slow Plexicushion, players are not venturing much to net.  Recall that Hewitt was a major champion on both fast grass and fast hards, and a great player.

Hewitt ripped the new surface in the papers all over Australia, calling it very slow.  Tennis Australia countered, saying Plexicushion is “medium fast”, virtually the same speed as Wimbledon, and a 38 out of 45 on the same court speed scale on which the US Open is a 40 and ultra fast Cincinnati is a 42 and the Paris Indoor is between 43 and 44.

Hewitt is right and Australia is lying.  Hewitt is wondering aloud where the up and coming Aussies are as well.  Please note that neither rising star Bernard Tomic who is actually German, nor Jelena Dokic and Jarmilla Gadjosova are technically from Australia.

Many believe the court speed is closer to 28 than 38, and that Tennis Australia, who stated that their goal was to create a court somewhere between the speed of Wimbledon and Roland Garros, had gotten it very wrong, noting 1st that Wimbledon is way slower than it’s ever been, and that the Plexicushion is more accurately nowhere near the speed at SW-19, and is in fact, slower than the RG of the last 3 years.

We don’t like slow courts at all because they do not promote the best tennis skills, and do not favor the best tennis players.  And way worse, tennis players who grow up on slow courts exclusively, do not develop all around tennis games.  Slow courts give players time to set up for two handed shots, when the artistry is clearly in the one handed shot, now a dinosaur.  Slow courts require more power to hit through, hence all the 2-handers, and they give those 2-handers the time to get their second hand on the racquet.  What does a 2-hander do when rushed?  They slice the ball.  A one handed shot.  And where have all the volleyers gone?  Well, they are with the one handers and the other dinosaurs.

These Plexicushion courts mock conditions at Wimbledon in only one notable way.  A good slice stays low.  Otherwise, we are watching the new clay court tennis, and pretty much, with as much sand mixed into the court.  One of the things that determines the speed of a hardcourt, is how much sand is mixed in to the top layer.  If you notice, when the spot shot challenges play in slow motion, you can see the top layer of the court in a closeup, and is visibly gritty and bumpy, providing more friction for the ball, which detracts from its speed.

The other primary determinant to court speed is surface make up.  The US Open is an acrylic surface, truly a hard surface.  The Australian Open is a synthetic surface.  A simulation of a hard surface, essentially made of rubber.  You ever wonder why the ball bounces so high in Melbourne?  Extra inflated rubber ball on a rubber court.  Bad for the sport.  The would be winners of more talented players are played back by would be losers on better surfaces.  Flat ball forehands that skid through a real hardcourt quickly, bounce up on a fake court like these an extra 1-2 feet.  That gross topsin we see from these pushers also bounces up some additional feet, making it hard for aggressive, talented shot makers to do anything with the ball.  That’s a shame.

Roger Federer, tennis’s king of talent and artistry, in his QF match, had an average ground stroke speed of 71 MPH.  He is consistently in the 80′s at Flushing.

Bringing us to tonight’s showdown between Federer and Nadal.  These courts are a beautiful fit for Nadal’s passive pusher hack butcher style.  He is going to hit high looping Tracey Austin type garbage all night long, and the last time he did so to Roger on this court at Laver, he was crowned champ. The last time they faced off on a similar surface, in Miami last year on that horrid Defense Pro surface, Nadal absolutely dominated Roger as has no other ever on a ‘hard court.’

So if you are wondering what ever happened to the American game, think about how California has almost exclusively gone to Plexicushion (IW, LA, Stanford) and how Florida has gone with Rebound Pro, and think of where all our young players train.

And as for tonight, listen, we can always make a case for Federer.  Apparently Vegas believes in that case–probably on name value–because the odds have been installed as follows:

Federer:  – 150

Nadal:  + 130

Federer has Paul Annacone putting together a masterful gameplan, no doubt, and Nadal didn’t play so well against Berdych, and he didn’t get done so early, giving Roger the more time to plan and prepare.  Which he needs, because Nadal is just going to do what he always does, which means he can roll out the same playbook he’s been using on Roger since 2005.  He is going to serve to Rogers’s backhand, he is going to loop topspin to his backhand within the point, and these embarrassingly bad for tennis courts will oblige him.

BTW Federer has lost his last 2 AO evening semis, and it isn’t too surprising, because the cooler it is, the slower these puffy balls even become.  And outdoors, Federer has not beaten Nadal in 2 years and 8 months (Madrid 09).  Also Federer has lost in straight sets to Djokovic twice in evening semis here at the AO, and lost in his only match here to Nadal, also at night.  He has also lost the only other major semi-final he ever played Nadal in, the RG semi in 2005.

But we’ll go with our hearts.  Roger may have some payback in mind for these rivals who have lately or routinely gotten the better of him, and Lord knows we are dying to see it.  It would be life affirming to see Roger beat the people he’s not supposed to beat and win when he’s not supposed to win, on the court built to spec for the other guys.  For once.  Even though he is “favored.”

It would also be better for tennis.

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Azarenka:  – 290

Radwanska:  + 230

______________________________________________________

Wozniacki:  – 140

Clijsters:  + 120

______________________________________________________

Del Potro:  + 260

Federer:  – 340

______________________________________________________

Djokovic:  – 900

Ferrer:  + 600

______________________________________________________

Murray:  – 1200

Nishikori:  + 750

______________________________________________________

Berdych:  + 300

Nadal:  – 400

______________________________________________________

Makarova:  + 325

Sharapova:  – 450

______________________________________________________

Errani:  + 650

Kvitova:  -1000

………..

Let’s start at the top.  Radwanska has improved a great deal in the last year.  We’ve been impressed, and have begun to view her in a bit of a different light.  She still has severe limitations in terms of the weaponry, and almost went home very early when Mattek-Sands stepped to her in round one.  The two played an epic first set breaker which Sands took 12-10, but then Sands peetered out.  That’s the rightful outcome.  Radwanska has the better body, better speed and footwork, and the better overall game.  But even on this slower than clay, disgusting blue Plexicushion, the American got to net and dominated up there and with her touch, for about an hour and twenty minutes.  That is Radwanska’s blueprint for victory, after all.  We highly doubt that’s happening against Azarenka, who will probably end this year as the world #2.

Azarenka is mauling people.  She can get everything back that Radwanska can, and she can also hit winners off the forehand and generate offense with her first serve.  She is winning a major in the near future, and she is winning this match tonight, though we aren’t betting against Kvitova this week.  Azarenka may have second claim to the next few majors, but Kvitova is the best player in the world right now, bar none, and she has first dibs.  We are kicking ourselves right now for not taking her in the pre-tournament phase at + 250, but more on her later.  Azarenka has taken 5 of the last six in the head to head with Radwanska, does everything better, stronger, and with a little flair.  We hate negative money lines, but even so, Azarenka is money in the bank at -290.

We are not Clijsters fans, hate the counter punch style, hate the belly fat, the pasty skin, the hairy neck, the whole deal.  But we respect her.  She is the defending champion here, and will be until she no longer is.  And not a sprained ankle, not 4 MP’s for Li Na, none of it makes a difference until she loses.  For that matter, we are still waiting for her to lose at the US Open, where she has quite a match streak going.  Did we respect the recent track record?  No.  But you can throw it out the window with Clijsters because she has stepped on the court and out of oblivion and won majors before and very few people have done that.  That said, as far as Belgians go, we’d take Henin and her beautiful style over Clijsters ugly grunt work.  But tonight, Clijsters is more beautiful than Wozniacki when it comes to tennis.  She is 2-0 lifetime versus Wozniacki, who, we’ll mention again, is nothing if not over-rated.  But maybe the ankle bothers Clijsters and maybe Wozniacki is going to outrun her tonight, but we’ll believe it when we see it.  We don’t like taking injured tennis players, so we aren’t touching this one, but Clijsters is gonna be tough out no matter what, and we’d even like to see her win because Wozniacki hasn’t earned her ranking.

Speaking of injuries, Roger has played some good tennis, hasn’t he?  But we actually don’t like him too much in this spot.  Remember, we always look for the positive money lines, and we don’t like injuries in one on one contests.  Also, the image of Del Potro, all the way back, and taking Nadal to 5 sets on very slow clay this fall in Davis Cup looms large.  This guy is a big time player.  He has the power to hit through this awful, gritty, tacky, gross court.  And he gives Roger lots of trouble when on, like he did in the SF at RG in 2009 and in the Final of the USO in 2009.  Del Potro is a better player than Tsonga and Berdych, the guys who took Roger out in major quarter-finals.  We are playing Del Potro tonight, and we’d say if he wins, he will have a better shot against Nadal than Federer would in the semi-final.

The other matches don’t excite us.  We think Berdych might be worth a lark at + 300 but really, we can’t see him winning.  Betting against Djokovic would be suicidal.  Kvitova as well.  Makarova may have a little shot.  She also may suffer a letdown.  And Murray seems too strong for Nishikori.  We shall see.

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Whatever happens from here out, and we expect nothing if not a huge push and big fight from warrior David Ferrer, but world #68 Ryan Sweeting has absolutely taken it to the Spaniard thus far, crushing the ball from the baseline and showing deft feel and at times dominance up at net.  Sweeting took the first set in a tie-breaker, dropped the second, and won the third, in what would be a monumental upset–the biggest of the tournament by far so far–and a signature win for the 24 year old American.

Sweeting has been the aggressor all day, and in a 69 minute first set, he made an improbable 19 of 20 points at net.  We must say kudos to that.  He has out-winnered Ferrer 36-23 so far, and 10-3 in the 3rd set, which Sweeting took convincingly.  Sweeting has been unloading off both wings, regularly taking Ferrer’s time away.  Ferrer, at the moment, has 2 break points to go ahead 3-1 in the fourth, but his hands are most definitely full with the spirited American today.

For Ferrer to win, he is going to have to do more than play the ball back.  Since the match is far from over, check it out if you can.  Definitely one of the best matches of tournament so far.

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Journeyman Alejandro Falla, currently world #71, has taken the first two sets from Mardy Fish, “the U.S. #1″, on court 3 in the 2nd round at Melbourne.  Falla, best known for going up two sets to zero on Roger Federer in the first round at Wimbledon in 2010, has played incredibly, converting on all 5 of his break chances, including a clutch break back a second ago as Fish was up 5-3, and trying to close out the 3rd set.  Falla has played big tennis and error free tennis, and he has been very clutch at the net, and has clearly dominated on big points.

This would be a disastrous loss for Fish.  The score is currently 7-6 (7-4), 6-3, 6-6 (4-2).  The boys have been at it for 2 hours and 40 minutes so far.

Later on tonight, John Isner battles David Nalbandian, Donald Young takes on Luckas Lacko, and Sam Querrey goes against Bernard Tomic.  It’s a huge night for Americans, even if Fish loses.  We expect all the younger guys to represent themselves well.

Also, Christina McHale is struggling at the moment, having lost the first set and down an early break in the second to Marina Erakovic.

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