If you’ve noticed that Rafael Nadal has simply breezed through 4 rounds in Melbourne, that he’s yet to be given a true test, and that he’s only been on the court about 7 hours total so far, then you might not think David Ferrer, the 7 seed, has much chance tomorrow morning.  Well, we’re with you, and so is Las Vegas.  Here are the odds on the match:

Rafael Nadal: – 1000 (bet 1000 units to win 100 plus initial wager)

David Ferrer: + 600 (bet 100 units to win 600 plus initial wager)

Now if we are fishing for positives as to why Ferrer does have a shot, keep these facts in mind: Ferrer is 3-2 against Nadal on hardcourts in his career.  Ferrer is the only man to defeat Nadal at a major when losing the first set.  Ferrer is one of only 5 men on the tour to defeat Nadal on clay (the other 4 are Soderling, Federer, Andreev, and Gonzo).  Ferrer and Nadal are both Spaniards and have the nationalistic rivalry going.  Ferrer is also undefeated so far in 2011.

As for the early men’s match, Murray vs. Dolgopolov Jr., the 2 men have never faced off.  Dolgopolov Jr. comes in off stunning 5 set upsets of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Robin Soderling.  The odds for that match are the same as above, with Murray going off at – 1000.

A Murray-Nadal semi would be a rematch of last year, which went easily to Murray.  Like last year, the outcome of that match will likely decide the tournament, as Nadal would be favored over Federer/Djokovic winner, while Murray would likely beat Djokovic.  Murray is 0-2 vs. Federer in major finals, and has yet to take a set off of Roger in a big spot.

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