Roger Federer (above), on a nifty stretch half/drop volley.

The lines have moved just a bit on tomorrow’s Mens semi-finals.

Open

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Nadal:  – 575

Murray:  + 425

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Federer:  + 240

Djokovic:  – 300

Current:

Nadal:  – 600

Murray:  + 450

__________________________

Federer:  + 220

Djokovic:  – 280

Well, we love Murray, first off.  Remember that when we say that, we mean that it’s a good bet.  Should you gamble, you may as well be willing to take flyers on underdogs who can make you a penny, because underdogs win a very good share of the time.  It’s going to take a tough guy to beat Nadal.  Murray is very tough, as is evidenced by his winning two rounds, and against Troicki, where he was 2 points from starting to practice for the grass court season.

Murray is a good bet.  He may not win, but he knows Nadal and they have played in many major semi-finals and Murray has gotten him twice, and probably still has a bad taste from Wimbledon last year.  Plus Murray is serving really well, with a lot of jump, and his return game is rock solid.  He will get his chances to break serve unless Rafa has a vintage dominant performance, unlike any he’s had this year.  And if Nadal is mentally tired, as he suggested to reporters, this is going to be a very difficult weekend for him to get through, no matter whom he faces.  The only guys left are ones who are really motivated to beat Nadal in this spot. 

We would think Nadal sees the odds tip a little more in his favor as well.  Still we expect a close match.  As for Federer/Djokovic, we think both guys look very good.  Does the walk-over quarter for Djoker leave him a little flat, or just extra hungry?  While we have a lot of hope for Roger as always, we would think that Djokovic will pound Federer’s backhand until it falls apart.  Sorry Roger.  The hope against these guys who are good enough to employ this strategy successfully is that you are ultra aggressive and don’t give them that chance.  Federer really hasn’t been dictated to in this tournament, which speaks to his incredible foot speed and agility, which is letting him step around the backhand to hit forehands masterfully.  That doesn’t mean that Djokovic won’t be able to do the dictating.

Late money is obviously on Roger, if slightly.  Congratulations to Na Li and our woman, Francesca Schiavone, as they are on into the finals on Saturday.  And do you believe that Schiavone is the underdog right now?

Francesca Schiavone:  even

Na Li:  – 120

Let’s hope NBC doesn’t once again fuck up our viewing pleasure.  Murray and Nadal take Chatrier first, at 8 AM EST.

Crack (http://crackbillionair.wordpress, www.crackbillionair.com)