Mutua Madrilena — Madrid, Spain

Ladies’ Final — 7:30 AM EST

Serena Williams:  – 180

Victoria Azarenka:  + 150

__ __ __ __

Mens’ Final — 10:30 AM EST

Roger Federer:  – 300

Tomas Berdych:  + 240

……..

We aren’t in the business of betting against Serena, as that is obviously a bad business to be in.  Azarenka doesn’t really handle Lady S that well, but then again, we haven’t seen the new Azarenka play Serena.  Azarenka has played so well, this week, this year, in compiling the 32-2 and 2 record, and is the better mover.  Azarenka has earned her way to the top.  We feel this line is skewed.  As such, we may take a flyer on the number one.  You aren’t going to see a plus by her name too many times in the next few years.  We’re just saying.  And we don’t really love Serena on clay.  In theory, she’s the bomb, yes, but in actuality, something always seems to go wrong for her on the dirt.  The bottom line is we are fine with taking the best player in the game and possibly losing, at +150.

As for Fed-Berdy, we like Roger.  Fed leads the h2h 10-4, and has won both matchups easily on clay, though they haven’t played on clay in many years.  While it seems like Berdych has gained traction in the matchup, winning 3 of the last 5, we don’t see Federer losing in this spot.  The courts here seem to suit both guys very well, but Federer has been consistently great this year, not just this week, and seems healthy and very at ease.  We have a lot to say about these courts, this event, and the whiny complaining of sore losers, so we’ll break down what was a very eventful week soon enough.

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