Raonic injury, Venus comeback the talk of Wimbledon day 3 (see new odds)

The much anticipated Milos Raonic (above) versus Rafael Nadal third round dream matchup was shattered today when Raonic injured his back as he fell in pursuit of the ball, in the first set against Gilles Muller of Luxembourg.  Raonic was forced to retire up 3-2 in the first set, and with a break of service in his pocket.  Theoretically, Raonic’s game should be feared on grass, but the young Canadian, in actuality, hasn’t had much practice.  A great shame.  Nadal/Raonic would have been one of the premiere matchups of the tournament and one of the most interesting matches of the year.  Hopefully, the kid gets his back right in time for the American hardcourt season, and we’d expect him to be much better when he returns to SW-19 next year.

How about Venus Williams having to fight for her life against an old lady?  Date-Krumm, at around 41, played some old school tennis, especially in the clutch, winning 61% of the points on second balls and coming to the net a stout 54 times.  The Japanese woman had to work hard for every point, only hit one ace in 2 hours and 56 minutes, and truly made Venus earn it.  And now we worry about Venus having played too much tennis so far, going into her 3rd round matchup with Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez, who, after “upsetting” Jelena Jankovic in round 1, came back strong today, stomping Monica Niculescu, 6-3, 6-0. 

The Williams sisters are paying the price for returning from injury on a specialty surface.  MJMS has never beaten Venus, but she is playing great, and is on her best surface.  The 3rd round matchup will be a rematch of their 3rd round match from 2008 which Venus won 6-1, 7-5.  We have a heavy rooting interest in Venus, obviously, and we’d hate to see her lose in this spot. 

On the men’s side, Stanislas Wawrinka surprisingly fell in straights to Simon Bolleli.  Who knew the Italians could play so well on grass?  What a season they’ve had on grass on both the men’s and women’s side.  Robin Haase, a good grass courter from the Netherlands upset Fernando Verdasco, who was ripe for the taking after his 4 hour battle on Monday with Radek Stepanek.  Dimitry Tursunov finished off his first round match and his opponent, Ernests Gulbis, who is flat under-achieving, truth be told.  Tursunov took the last 2 sets in tie-breakers, the first of which he took fourteen points to twelve.  And we were obviously glad to see one handers Richard Gasquet and Grigor Dimitrov pull through.  Dimitrov will have to turn it around quickly, because he has Tsonga bright and early.  Here are those, and some other interesting lines for day 4:

Dimitrov:  + 450

Tsonga:  – 800

_____________________________

Ferrer:  – 750

Harrison:  + 425

_________________________

Almagro:  + 165

Isner:  – 225

______________________________

Soderling:  – 350

Hewitt:  + 225

____________________________

Troicki:  – 350

Lu:  + 225

…….

We are happy to take our chances on some of the younger guys like Harrison and Dimitrov tomorrow, especially at these prices.  Isner/Almagro is a tough call.  We wouldn’t touch it.  Soderling/Hewitt should be a great spectacle, and both players were pushed in round one.  Not listed above, but interestingly enough, young Aussie Bernard Tomic is a (-225) favorite to advance versus Igor Andreev.  We wouldn’t touch that either.  But we are all over Yen-Hsun Lu, who, recall, upset Andy Roddick in the round of 16 last year.  Lu is a very tough out, and we aren’t sure about Troicki on grass.

Anderson:  + 2500

Djokovic:  – 10000

Anderson is a 6’7, mobile, bomb serving stick.  The Djoker can’t be in love with this draw card.  We like Anderson’s line.  Would you rather bet 10000 units to win a hundred, or bet a hundred to win 2500?  And for the ladies:

Wozniacki:  – 3000

Razzano:  + 1200

_____________________________

Robson:  + 1400

Sharapova:  – 4000 

___________________________

Zheng:  – 225

Doi:  + 165

_______________________

Bartoli:  – 3000

Dominguez Lino:  + 1200

______________________________

Halep:  + 700

Serena:  – 1500

……

How is anyone comfortable laying thousands on any of these favorites?  It would be a nice story if Robson won, and Sharapova’s in fine form, but, it’s not minus 4000 form.  Take a flyer.  Wozniacki?  Upset waiting to happen.  Serena?  Probably wins, but that’s bad betting at negative 15.  And we threw Moi/Zheng in there, primarily because we called Moi over Mattek-Sands, in what was one of the worst lines we have ever seen in round 1.

Na Li:  – 160

Sabine Lisicki:  + 120

And why is Li Na getting so little respect?  We think it backs up our opinion of the women’s game nicely, and clay court tennis for that matter, with her being the current French champ, but we also think she’s a good bet in this spot.  Stick with the mixed channels for all the action.

Crack (https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com, www.crackbillionair.com)

 

Odds and analysis for day 3 @ Wimbledon; Oudin disgraces America

Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (above), who “upset”  15th seed Jelena Jankovic today, as we expected.

As you know, we were on Radek Stepanek today, and unfortunately for us, after taking the first 2 sets from Fernando Verdasco, whom we think is a quite poor big match player, the Spaniard got out of jail, winning 3 straight sets, and 9-7 in the extended fifth.  We aren’t about to apologize.  This is the kind of action we like, and we’d go the same way if there was a rematch of these 2 on grass tomorrow.  Some of other picks did a little better.  We think that Gonzo is officially back, after popping 25 aces and playing very clean tennis against Alexandr Dolgopolov, who got stung by an abysmal draw.  Gonzo hit 50 winners and had only 19 UFE in a very entertaining match in which Dolgopolov played pretty well, save for his weak second serve, now very exposed come fast court season.

We loved Ryan Harrison and along with Gonzalez and Martinez Sanchez, we were very happy with a nice trio of wins from those dogs.  Simply put, Dodig was not the same player he was last week against Harrison, who dominated every positive category except aces.  Harrison will play David Ferrer in round 2, and we’ll be liking him again in that matchup on Thursday.  Harrison is a very tough kid, for an American.  Very atypical of the sort of tennis brats our nation has been raising.  Speaking of brats, how about that Melanie Oudin, who caught a bagel and a breadstick from Ana Ivanovic, in the route of the day.  Oudin should give it up.  How sad was that performance, in which she won a mere 15 points out of 39 on serve, and a meager 8 points in the return game?

Frankly, we are absolutely sick of seeing her touted as a rising American.  She has gotten by too long on her opponents double faults.  If we trot her out for Fed Cup again, I’m gonna puke.

We thought Lleyton Hewitt would out-tough Kei Nishikori on the grass, and he did, for his 104th career win on grass.  We also thought talented 1-hander Sergiy Stakhovsky would roll British hack Daniel Cox, and he did.  We had Isner going through, if you recall, with few breaks of serve, and we loved Dimitrov, and fully expect him to come through when his match is resumed tomorrow.  The Bulgarian 1-hander who has been called by some a Federer clone wass up 7-5, 7-5, 3-3 when darkness fell.

On the women’s side, sure we went against Wozniacki, as we will in every round until she is eliminated.  We weren’t impressed with the short work she made of Parra Santonja, and have no respect for her game or rank.  As we expected, Irina Falconi, a terrible favorite, fell easily to Stephanie Dubois of Canada, 2 and 2.  Tamira Paszek came through againt Ayumi Morita in 3 sets, and will draw suprise winner from New Jersey, Christina McHale in the second round.

And before we get to the morning’s odds, we’d just like to mention that Serena had a very tough match and seemed, by her post match comments, just happy to be there and to have won a match.  We have seen her get hot many times, and many times, off of long layoffs, notably dusting Justine Henin, and silencing the “Serena is fat” bandwagon by winning at Melbourne while fat, but we just feel like this may be a bit too much for here here, despite a favorable draw.

Serena may bow out early.  And we might be betting against her.  As for tomorrow’s odds:

Nadal:  – 12000

Sweeting:  + 3000

___________________________

Fish:  – 400

Istomin:  + 250

__________________________

Hanescu:  + 700

Roddick:  – 1500

____________________________

Paszek:  – 175

McHale:  + 125

_________________________

Dulgheru:  + 250

Kuznetsova:  – 400

……..

We think Kuznetsova’s movement is suspect on grass, and we don’t like her as a big favorite here.  McHale has a fighter’s chance in what is basically a toss up.  We hate Roddick at minus 1500, and Nadal at minus 12000.  I mean, who really wants to lay 1500 units or 12000 units to win a 100.  I’ll take my chances with the dogs at those rates.  We also don’t like Mardy Fish much at (-400), and don’t think he’s much good in the big spot.  There are a lot of 1st round matches yet to come off, and we spoke about some of them yesterday.  We didn’t mention Kristina Barrois,  a one hander whom we have a soft spot for.  We are pulling for her, a slim favorite over Petra Cetkovska.  And Bethanie Mattek-Sands is (-600) against Misak Doi.  Wow.  Another sign of how bad the women’s game is.  Gun to our heads, we’d say Hanescu/Istomin would be our long shot parlay of the day.  Maybe throw in Ryan Sweeting if we are feeling really crazy.  A 5 unit 3 team parlay there would net 4340 units, if the stars aligned.

Crack (https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com, www.crackbillionair.com)

 

Ladies Championship odds for Wimbledon

Agnieszka Radwanska:  + 6000

Alisa Kleybanova:  + 12500

Ana Ivanovic:  + 5000

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova:  + 5000

Andrea Petkovic:  + 3000

Aravane Rezai:  + 15000

Caroline Wozniacki:  + 1000

Daniela Hantuchova:  + 2000

Flavia Pennetta:  + 15000

Francesca Schiavone:  + 6000

Jelena Jankovic:  + 3000

Julia Goerges:  + 4000

Kaia Kanepi:  + 10000

Maria Sharapova:  + 400

Marion Bartoli:  + 4000

Na Li:  + 700

Nadia Petrova:  + 12500

Petra Kvitova:  + 800

Sabine Lisicki:  + 4000

Sam Stosur:  + 2500

Serena:  + 350

Shahar Peer:  + 15000

Svetlana Kuznetsova:  + 4000

Tsvetana Pironkova:  + 10000

Venus:  + 1000

Vera Zvonareva:  + 1500

Victoria Azarenka:  + 1200

Yanina Wickmayer:  + 6000

Field (Any Other Player):  + 3000

…….

Azarenka over Zvonareva?  Really?

 

All England Club forced to seed undeserving Wozniacki first (upskirt shot)

Perhaps young Caroline Wozniacki (above), starlet, media darling and tennis prodigy ‘realized’ is too young to know or has never had the time to sit around and watch her sport or to actually read a book about it.  So let’s make clear for her and anyone else in need of the lesson.  Wimbledon is officially called “The Championships at Wimbledon” for very good reason.  Because they are.  Historically, the Wimbledon winner is considered the year’s best player–the champion of tennis.  There are several rationales for that.  It is the oldest and most well established major, on the most beautiful, pristine courts under the sun, under the watchful eye of the royal familly in their royal box, with all of their royal rules of etiquette and dress, and before the days when the questionable mechanics of a computer tallied who had gained the most points and who defended the least points, and this one is #1 even if they lose and this other one is #2 even if they win.

https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com/2010/08/29/us-open-top-ladies-seed-caroline-wozniacki-bikini-shots/

Kudos to the All England Club for doing the right thing by Serena and Venus Williams, and for seeding them well above their WTA rankings.  In fact, kudos to the All England Club for always seeding according to their view of who should be where, and not the wretched, skewed rankings of the WTA and ATP.  This year on the men’s side, true to form, the All England Club did right by seeding Berdych before Ferrer and Roddick before Monfils, going with more tired and true grass court players, paying homage to finalists over guys who have never done much on grass.

When it came to the top of the women’s draw, the club had its hands tied.  Caroline Wozniacki, one of the worst world #1’s ever on the female side, was awarded the top seed among the ladies, despite her early exit from Roland Garros in meek fashion, and without playing any tuneups on grass.  If not for the terrible state of the women’s game, we are dead certain that heavy consideration would have been given to someone else for the top spot.  With Clijsters withdrawing, and with her lack of big time success at Wimbledon, we doubt she’d have gotten the nod even if she were in the mix.  But would anyone in the world doubt that Clijsters, healthy, would have a lot better shot here than Wozniacki, who decided to play indoors last week at e-Bok in Copenhagen, on a cushy indoor track, rather than play on grass?

In fact, is there anyone out there right now who cares to stand up for Wozniacki and vouch for her chances at Wimbledon?  We’d bet Zvonareva, the Wimbledon and US runners-up, garnered a lot of consideration for the top seed, and that she’d have definitely gotten that slot had she won Wimbledon last year.  On this page, we delight in few things more than railing Jelena Jankovic, also one of the worst #1’s ever, and with very little to show for it.  While there are tons of similarities in their games, like hitting the forehand off the backfoot, weak serving, and passing on overheads, as well as, of course, the awful volleying, Jankovic does have 5 major semi-finals to her credit, and one major final.  Wozniacki, while younger, has 1 Australian Open semi on the books, as well as the 2009 US Open final in which she was taken out to the woodshed by Clijsters.

We thought Wozniacki had a great shot down under this year on the slow, awful Plexicushion, and in that heat that a pusher like her should be well ready for.  And then Na Li pounnded her.  We wrote in this space that it could be a now or never type of deal for Wozniacki.  With her inscrutably picked schedule and dumb camp, led by her Polish ex-pro soccer playing dad, we are leaning toward never at this point.  And we don’t like her attitude at all, especially after catching her self aggrandizing comments after e-Bok last week.

“I’m so happy to win this tournament in my home country – it’s a special feeling,” Wozniacki said afterwards. “This is my 17th title and last time I played here I had eight titles, so I’ve more than doubled that – it’s a good feeling. The last three matches my game has been at a very high level and I’m looking forward to going to London, and practicing and preparing for Wimbledon.”

http://www.wtatennis.com/news/20110612/world-no1-wozniacki-wins-in-copenhagen_2256076_2375090

She’s counting second rate trophies.  Her priorities are mixed up.  As we’ve said here, 3 tournaments on green clay?  This year?  Does she not know that red and green clay play very differently?  Obviously the 3 titles she took on the green clay did nothing for her in her matchup with Hantuchova in France in which she won 4 games.  Just like playing on soft hards in June doesn’t get one ready for Wimbledon.

Hopefully the right players get back to the right spots in the women’s game because this is almost unwatchable.  As much as we might fault Sharapova for her lack of sound fundamentals, she has power and toughness, as well as tremendous competitive spirit.  We find Wozniacki lacking in all of those areas.

We’d be very surprised if she does anything to bolster her resume at SW-19.  The green clay legends tour someday?  Maybe.

Crack (https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com, www.crackbillionair.com)

 

Unworthy Wozniacki destroyed; Roger looking smashing at Roland Garros (see Vegas odds)

Fed on the forehand volley (above).

When my young son often queries me about the tennis rankings system, usually his fascination rests with the fact that the best player is often not the number one player.  Like at present, in both the men’s and women’s game.  Djokovic is clearly the best player, and Nadal is number one, and with the ladies, how Caroline Wozniacki is the women’s #1.  I’ve asked the same questions myself since I was a boy.  But in recent times, the amount of times that a false number one has occupied the top spot for many weeks as helped validate that the women’s game is a joke.  Safina, who at least made a few major finals to go along with her major meltdown, Jankovic, who held the top spot for an embarrassing 25 weeks, perhaps the worst fundamental tennis player in years, and now Wozniacki, who got spanked today by Hantuchova 6-1, 6-3 in about 70 minutes.  She’ll also retain the ranking and go into the grass court season as #1.  And what has she done to deserve that?

Okay, she has 4 clay court titles this year, and 6 overall.  We laughed a little when she said after the loss, “clay is not my favorite surface.”  But really, here’s why we dislike Mary Joe Fernandez so much, and can’t stand that she captains our Fed Cup.  She talks about Wozniacki, talks about her ranking, see’s her ticket punched in round 3, and says sutff like, ‘the computer’s going to give her credit for going out there and playing every week.”  It’s a dumb computer.  And for Fernandez to back it up when she has a job in tennis, smacks to us of more riding with the establishment.  Patrick McEnroe also probably loves the computer.

When Jankovic was #1, in that year, she had about a 55-28 record, which means she would about make the round of 16, with a bye, of most of her tournaments, and then lose.  Federer lost 4,6, and 7 matches from 2005 to 2007.  It’s obvious why, too.  Jankovic is a hack.  She can’t play and has no guts, besides.  Worst serves, volleys, forehands, transitions, and touch in the game.  With Wozniacki, it’s not quite as bad, because she has some better fundamentals, but she has even less guts.  These girls are petrified to come in and hit a volley, and you know what?  Maybe Hantuchova is also, but she goes for it and can rip huge forehands.  What can Wozniacki do? 

The 2 played on the American putrid super slow Spring hardcore season, and Hantuchova was off.  Wozniacki blew her out in the first set, and then Hantuchova loosened up, and the 2nd set went to a tie-breaker, and Wozniacki won because she was running really well and more on her game.  When it didn’t matter.  As the computer rewarded her for playing every week, Wozniacki played three meaningless green clay events and won them.  Green clay is very different than red clay.  There are no majors on green clay.  Here she is, exhausted today, having wasted her chance at a major by playing meaningless stops.

Do you see the men playing on green clay on the men’s tour?  They do not waste their time.  I’d like to know the last green clay event played on the regular men’s tour.  But the men are playing some interesting tennis right now, at one of the best week ones in recent memory.  You see Federer?  Who has allowed 2 break points in 3 best of 5 set matches, with 2 of the opponents being very good players.  How about this stat?  In the last two rounds, Federer has made all nine of nine serve and volley points.  In the Texeira match, that was 7 out of a total 84 points.  That’s a substantial percentage of the points on clay in the modern game.

Roger must love these balls.  And he’s all set to meet his buddy Stan.  Roger has played about of a 3rd of the time in rounds 2 and 3 as Wawrinka needed today to take out Tsonga.  Roger’s last two clinics leave him fit and fresh to serve out wide to Stan a few times and then knock the volley off.  Rafa, who plays tomorrow, can’t be too in love with the balls for a change.  Sixteen break points for Pablo Andujar and nearly being pinned alive by Isner’s serve.  Some 7 plus hours of court time in 2 matches.  That doesn’t mean Antonio Veic looks great, the journeyman Croat, who takes on Nadal.  But he is hotter than ever, the world’s #227, and did just take out Davydenko.  But we’re gonna guess he’s the type of underdog who makes a lot of sense on the money line.  We’ll give it to you in a bit.    And we’re not trying to disrespect Nadal.  We’ve seen guys give him a tussle early and thought the demise was imminent, and he’s gone on to win some of those majors.  But it would be crazy if Roger could blast these quick balls all over the place in a semi-final matchup with Rafa, keep the points short, and win this thing while taking out Nadal on the way.  It is pretty much the only knock the putrid baseliners cling to.

We won’t say he’s not gonna do it.  And that it won’t be great for the game.  And then what will the Roger haters say?  That he didn’t beat Djokovic, if say, Andy Murray breaks through on clay and beats the Djoker, who is due to lose, even if he survives Del Potro, who I must say, has a wicked serve for clay.  Djokovic has gotten used to putting every ball in play and fighting for every point.  He’s just standing around hoping a lot of the time here, and either way, that’s the kind of thing you wanna see, even if it gonna air around 7 or 8 AM tomorrow.

Here are those odds we promised:

Nadal:  – 10000

Veic:  + 2500

That’s the same line they gave Isner.  By the way, we also think Murray is extremely over-favored:

Murray:  – 5000

Berrer:  + 1500

And we’ll be pulling for Mardy Fish in a tough matchup versus Frenchman Simon, and Soderling, who we also wouldn’t mind seeing in a matchup with our good friend Rafa.  Like I said, we’ve seen him do it before and win big, but we think Rafa is playing worse right now than the year the great man won his first title at Roland Garros.

Crack (https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com, www.crackbillionair.com)

 

New balls please! Roland Garros Friday’s odds (see Vegas odds); Hantuchova bikini shot

In what must be a great blow to the great man’s confidence, Roger Federer will for the 2nd straight match, will play his match on Lenglen and not Chatrier.  Cliff D gave us the stat yesterday, on the horrible coverage of Roger’s match (we suggest mapping out court whatever and then tuning the mix channel to it and leaving it there, so you get less pretentious announcers and practically no commercial breaks), that Roger had not played a match on Lenglen since 2004.  Let alone 2.  And he’s got the nasty little Serb, and we mean that as a compliment, Janko Tipsarevic, a giant slayer at majors throughout the years, who nearly punched Roger’s ticket at Oz a few years back, and let me tell you, we were scared.  Tipsarevic played practically lights out for 3 sets, and he really didn’t show any signs of losing his fight until deep into the 5th set.  Roger could have easily lost.

Federer:  – 1500

Tipsarevic:  + 700

Fed’s got the edge on clay, but these 2 haven’t met on clay, and we’ve seen Tipsarevic bulldog a lot of people on clay.  He’s comfortable there.  Should only be about 63-64 degrees when they pair off tomorrow, and a little cloudy.  The slower court will not help Tipsarevic much, and meanwhile, have you seen those balls?!!  The ones that the prince, Novak Djokovic, Lord Conqueror, and the princess, Andy Murray, Lady Grace, have had the audacity to criticize the balls because these new Babolat balls being used this year at Roland Garros, are popping.  Making Roger and Djokovic’s opponent tomorrow, Juan Martin Del Potro, a ball crusher for the ages, look pretty good.

Juan Martin Del Potro:  + 400

Novak Djokovic:  – 700

That line is huge.  Sure, Del Potro is not all the way back, but if Isner served consistent 140’s, then DP should have a good day on serve, making him just about the only guy to win free points off Djokovic all year.  And the kid does have to lose some time.  So yeah, I mean, we love the balls!  First the slow hards, then the slow clay that they even water every few minutes, and these things diminish the quality of the tennis.  Sunny skies and faster balls tips thbalance a bit for the shot makers and ball strikers, and they deserve to enjoy an innovation that doesn’t aid safe baselining for a change.

We like Zvonareva and Pavlyuchenkova tomorrow:

Vera Zvonareva:  – 650

Anastasia Rodionova:  + 375

________________

Llagostera Vives:  + 325

Pavlyuchenkova:  – 550

We are pulling for the champ, Francesca Schiavone, in her matchup with annoying 2-hand on both sides, Shuai Peng:

Peng:  + 120

Schiavone:  – 160

Not a lot of respect for the champ, we’d have to say.  Speaking of annoying two-handers, ugly and annoying Marion Bartoli is going against the German force of late, Julia Goerges, who has an excellent first serve.  The 2nd ball is not as stirring.  We want Goerges, obviously, and think she might be the surprise pick this fortknight, but we also wouldn’t be shocked if Bartoli beat her.  And that really sums up our feelings on the women’s game.

Julia Goerges:  – 250

Marion Bartoli:  + 175

Kuznetsova, who has toned down and looks like a real threat here after all, is a big favorite over Rebecca Marino (-700/+400).  Somehow JW Tsonga is a favorite over the brilliant moving on clay, Stan Wawrinka (-105/-135).  We’ll take Stan, the fitter player, and good dirt baller.  Bethanie Mattek-Sands takes on Jankovic, who you know we just think plays such lazy, boring, and safe tennis.  A real contrast in styles, since Sands doesn’t have the pure strokes, but has all the guts, hands, and touch that Jankovic lacks.  It would be enormous for Sands to make the round of 16.

Jankovic:  – 450

Sands:  + 275

Ferrer/Stakhovsky…Ferrer a – 2000 favorite, and he should be a big favorite, but we have a soft spot for talented one hander, and we’d love to see him make the round of 16, playing the style he does.  A couple more interesting ones:

Wozniacki:  – 350

Hantuchova:  + 225 (see bikini shot above)

And:

Gasquet:  – 180

Bellucci:  + 130

Good tennis tomorrow.  Even for clay.  Stick with the mix channels. 

Crack (https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com, www.crackbillionair.com) 

 

Women in bad shape for Paris (see Vegas odds); our analysis

2011 Rome Masters Champion, Maria Sharapova (above).

We thought Caesar’s was rough on the men, and they were, if you aren’t Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal–the only men given a shadow of a chance to win at Roland Garros.  Wait until you see the odds for the ladies chamionship:

French Open Ladies Champion Odds

Agnieszka Radwanska:  + 5000 (wager 100 units to win 5000, plus initial wager)

Alexandra Dulgheru:  + 10000

Alisa Kleybanova:  + 10000

Ana Ivanovic:  + 2500

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova:  + 4000

Andrea Petkovic:  + 3000

Aravane Rezai:  + 10000

Caroline Wozniacki:  + 500

Daniela Hantuchova:  + 10000

Flavia Pennetta:  + 8000

Francesca Schiavone (defending champion):  + 1500

Jarmila Groth:  + 10000

Jelena Jankovic:  + 1500

Kaia Kanepi:  + 10000

Kim Clijsters:  + 1000

Maria Sharapova:  + 800

Marion Bartoli:  + 6000

Na Li:  + 2500

Nadia Petrova:  + 12500

Petra Kvitova:  + 1000

Samantha Stosur:  + 800

Svetlana Kuznetsova:  + 1500

Vera Zvonareva:  + 1000

Victoria Azarenka:  + 450

Yanina Wickmayer:  + 5000

Yaroslava Shvedova:  + 12500

Field (Any Other Player):  + 800

Comments:

Right off the bat, we find it very interesting that only 4 players have odds better than or equal to any other player in the field.  That’s a huge indicator that this field is wide open, and that the odds makers do not have a lot of confidence in anyone.  By the way, did we miss the newsflash about Petra Kvitova?  She’s been given good odds despite having reached the 4th round at Roland Garros only once, and having only a 3-2 lifetime record there.  She has had a good year, and won Madrid, but considering the depleted field, we can’t even call it impressive fashion.

Kim Clijsters, fresh off of a long layoff due to an ankle injury suffered at her cousin’s wedding, is strapping up for Roland Garros, knowing the window for this major is closing for her.  We usually like her after long layoffs, but not when she’s hurt.  She’s a + 1000, and normally, you’d have to jump all over that, except, how many people win the Frech with serious ankle injuries?

We like Zvonareva a bit at + 1000, who has an 18-7 record at Roland Garros, a quarter-final appearance in 2003, and 2 round of 16 appearances, though only one “recently” (2008).  Zvonareva is a smart player and we like her style.  She may be able to navigate such a downtrodden field.  As for Stosur and Sharapova, we like neither, and Stosur especially, has shown us nothing in the big spot.  Stosur has definitely been the better clay courter here recently, and yet Masha destroyed her Sunday in Rome, and is 8-0 lifetime in the matchup.  We aren’t rushing to put anything down on any of these ladies though.

There’s lots of respect for the favorite, Victoria Azarenka, and she is the favorite with good reason.  She has power and mobility, and keeps the ball in play, unlike world #1, Caroline Wozniacki, who has no power.  Now would be a great time for either of these ladies to step up and grab their first real hardware, but neither look that good to us.  Azarenka recently came up lame and retired in the 2nd set against Sharapova last week, and Maria simply took Wozniacki to school.

Gun to our head, we’d probably lay the money on Sharapova, the most tested and true champion in the field, who also happens to be playing a lot, and playing well.  The weaknesses in her game on real tennis courts, like her inability to move forward, volley, and hit over-heads will affect her less on clay, where she will be content to play everything from the baseline.  And, she may get a little extra motivation from her man, Sasha Vujacic, who has been travelling with her since the Lakers got swept.  Otherwise, we’d be all over Clijsters, but a bad wheel at Roland Garros is very bad news.

With this diluted field, maybe even a young American can catch a break.  If Sloane Stephens can take out Anastasia Pivarova in the final round of qualifying, then Sloane is into the main draw, along with the diminutive Irina Falconi, who won the USTA’s French Open wildcard competition, and not our girl Lauren Davis, much to our chagrin.  World #124 Jamie Hampton, an Alabama product, is also one win away from qualifying for the main draw.  It’s also nice to see Pennsylvania’s Alison Riske is in to the main draw, and will be playing in her first French Ope.  And here’s to the field getting healthy for Wimbledon.  We can live with a piss poor champion in the mud, but not on the royal lawns.

Crack (http://crackbillionair.wordpresss.com, www.crackbillionair.com)

 

Australian Open Men’s & Women’s Semi-final Vegas Odds (Federer vs. Djokovic XX live @ 3:30 AM on ESPN2)

Four time Australian champ Roger Federer and 2008 Australian champ Novak Djokovic (above).

https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com/2010/12/31/daydreaming-of-roger-and-venus-in-melbourne/

With Rafael Nadal’s surprise loss to David Ferrer last night (more on that to come), and with Andy Murray looking shaky against impressive Alexander Dolgopolov who was the 1st player he faced so far to give him a test in Melbourne, both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, set to square off early tomorrow, are staring opportunity in the face.  Federer, who opened at – 235 on the money line, with Djokovic at + 185, has seen the odds shift slightly in his favor today.  The odds are now:

Federer:  – 240 (wager 240 units to win 100 plus initial wager)

Djokovic:  + 180 (wager 100 units to win 180 plus initial wager)

Federer is 13-6 lifetime in the head to head, but discounting the first 3 matches and the last 3, is only 7-6.  The biggest match they’ve had in recent history was at the US Open, where Djokovic came from 2 sets to 1 and beat Roger in 5 sets for the first time ever.  Federer served horribly in that match, and didn’t return much better.  He couldn’t have played a worse match, frankly.  To us, he seemed satisfied to return to the final 4 of a major, after his streak was snapped by Soderling in Paris, and was upset by Berdych at Wimbledon.

We don’t want to jinx anything, but we see a different player out there right now.  Actually, 2 different players.  Djokovic has played phenomenal tennis this year, has his serve back on track, and gained a lot of confidence from winning the Davis Cup.  Federer looked shaky to some earlier in the week, but to us, we like what we see.  The Simon match?  Federer did not play badly.  Playing the world #6 in round 2 (Simon might be 39th right now, but at his best was up to #6, and he has returned to that form) was the toughest matchup perhaps that any of the top players faced in rounds 1-4.  Federer destroyed Wawrinka Monday night, displaying his best form in months.  And his form hasn’t been bad at all.  Paul Annacone has made a definite impression on Roger.  The great man has won 27 of his last 28, and won Doha, the YEC, and Basel, and Stockholm this past fall and in the new year, while losing 1 match back in October to Monfils in Paris.  Last week, Simon assaulted Federer’s backhand, in some rallies, going 8 or 9 rally strokes straight to Roger’s weaker wing.  And it held up.  Federer kept hitting backhands, kept his errors down, and took an impressive 46/64 points at net–one of the most prolific matches Roger has played at the net in years.

Djokovic has good odds tonight for a reason.  He has defeated Roger twice in the semi-finals of majors and knows his game intimately.  He has notched 5 wins versus Roger on hardcourts, and is 1-1 versus Federer in his career in Melbourne.

As for the ladies, they will begin soon on ESPN2.  We think both lines are very curious and disrespectful to established talent.  First of all, in the first semi, world #1, Caroline Wozniacki is actually underdog to 9th seed Li Na.  Here are the odds:

Na Li:  – 125 (wager 125 units to win 100 units plus initial wager)

Caroline Wozniacki:  + 105 (wager 100 units to win 105 units plus initial wager)

https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com/2010/08/29/us-open-top-ladies-seed-caroline-wozniacki-bikini-shots/

In the second semi…

Kim Clijsters:  – 160 (wager 160 units to win 100 units plus initial wager)

Vera Zvonareva: + 140 (wager 100 units to win 140 units plus initial wager)

https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com/2010/09/10/odds-changes-in-both-ladies-us-open-semi-finals-hot-zvonareva-pics/

We love Vera and Wozniacki tonight.  Both are due to break through.  Frankly, if Wozniacki can’t break through against Li Na, then it’s not happening.  Zvonareva was slaughtered at the USO by Clijsters in the final.  What’s changed since then?  Well, Clijsters looked vulnerable for the first time in ages the other night, and Vera continues to improve.  We think Vegas took note.  Clijsters is a player who frequently breaks down, and she has played a lot of tennis now in the last year and a half.  Agnes Radwanska gave her a real tussle the other night, and we see her as a pop gun player with no weapons of note.  She had Clijsters on her heels at times, and had she pulled out the close 2nd set tie-breaker, we think she’d have won the match.

Zvonareva has now finaled at two straight majors.  She’s knocking on the door.  Let’s see her kick it in.  We do not like Clijsters, and we have always appreciated Zvonareva, and love the fact that she is an excellent doubles player and a major doubles champion.

Crack (https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com, www.crackbillionair.com)

 

Odds changes in both ladies US Open semi-finals this afternoon (hot Zvonareva pics)

Wimbledon’s ladies’ singles and doubles finalist Vera Zvonareva (above + below).

First Ladies Semi-final (approximate start, 1:30 PM EST, CBS)

____________________________________________________________

Open:

Caroline Wozniacki: – 320 (wager 32o units to win 100 units, plus initial wager)

Vera Zvonareva: + 240 (wager 100 units to win 240 units, plus initial wager)

Evening line, 9/9/10:

Wozniacki: – 340 (wager 340 units to win 100 units, plus initial wager)

Zvonareva: + 260 (wager 100 units to win 260 units, plus initial wager)

Current:

Wozniacki: – 450 (wager 450 units to win 11 units, plus initial wager)

Zvonareva: + 325 (wager 100 units to win 325 units, plus initial wager) 

….

Second Ladies’ Semi-final (directly following Wozniacki-Zvonareva on CBS)

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Open:

Kim Clijsters: – 200

Venus: + 160

Evening line, 9/9/10:

Clijsters: – 220

Venus: + 170

Current:

Clijsters: – 190

Venus: + 150

Everyone bought Wozniacki, apparently, causing the money line to almost double, but frankly, I think Zvonareva is a very good bet, even in the 200’s, and an excellent bet at + 325.  Zvonareva has become a big time player, a tested player at the majors, and this is a good matchup for her because Wozniacki is a defensive style player, whereas Zvonareva is a very good offensive player, and cuts a lot of points off at the net.  On decoturf I think Zvonareva has a surface edge, and I’d love to see her exploit that edge today.

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As for Venus-Clijsters, Clijsters should be the favorite based on what happened last year and how the matches have gone between the two of late.  Venus, at one point, held a 6-2 edge in the head to head, but now they are dead even at 6 all.  Clijsters has won 19 straight matches at The Open and hopefully, she’s due to lose.  Plus, Venus is a very attractive underdog.

I’d love to see both underdogs come through.  Zvonareva had such a heartbreaking final weekend at Wimbledon, losing in both the singles and doubles finals, and based on her year and how much she’s improved, I feel she deserves better this weekend.  As for Venus, she’ll always be our Lady V, and a 3rd Open title, to go with 6 Open semis and 10 Open quarters, would give her 8 majors, and further advance her position on already hallowed ground.

–Crack (https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com, www.crackbillionair.com)

 

Federer-Soderling late odds change (ESPN2 tonight)

Open:

Federer: -400 (wager 400 units to win 100 units, plus initial wager)

Soderling: +300 (wager 100 units to win 300 units, plus initial wager) 

Current:

Federer: -450

Soderling: +325

https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com/2010/09/09/federer-soderling-us-open-quarter-final-preview/

The above trend indicates that Vegas was taking more wagers than they wanted to at Federer -400, so they shifted the odds further away from Federer in the hopes of generating some wagering on Soderling.  It seems like smart money is on Roger, especially at -400 on the money line.  Also, the fact that the winds are whipping over on Ashe would seem to benefit Roger’s game over Soderling’s.  The wind is reeking havoc on the servers in the women’s match right now.

Federer-Soderling will air when top seeded female Caroline Wozniacki and Dominika Cibulkova conclude.  Wozniacki leads 6-1, 3-4 at present.  Federer-Soderling will be called by John and Patrick McEnroe.

https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com/2010/08/29/us-open-top-ladies-seed-caroline-wozniacki-bikini-shots/

https://crackbillionair.wordpress.com/2010/09/08/patrick-mcenroe-resigns-davis-cup-captaincy-courier-declares-interest/

–Crack